The rising cost of European energy supplies has driven deep declines in many financial model-derived estimates of the single currency’s fair value this year, and with little respite on the horizon, some of the market’s most bearish forecasters are feeling upbeat about their EUR/USD outlook.
The EUR/USD will decline significantly in 2022. While factors such as the US economy and Fed policy have been a significant driver of this decline, it is the rising cost of energy supply disruptions that is giving most confidence to some other markets, which implies the eventual collapse of the euro.
The EUR/USD currency pair against the dollar EUR/USD fell last week to the 0.9900 support level, its lowest in 20 years, and in reaction to Jerome Powell’s statements, he tried to recover on Friday to the 1.0090 resistance, but he returned in his strongest downward path towards the 0.9964 support level and closed trading around it.
The euro gained a respite for most of the last week after falling below parity with the dollar during Monday’s session, but European gas prices remained at high levels after days of massive increases. These costs and their expected impact on companies and households alike is what prompts some forecasters to feel confident that the fall of the euro for more than 18 months may still have a long way to go.